Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Jul 05 2024 05:57:06

AWUS01 KWNH 050556
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-051155-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0561
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
155 AM EDT Fri Jul 05 2024

Areas affected...Portions of Eastern NM and the TX Panhandle

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 050555Z - 051155Z

SUMMARY...Slow-moving areas of heavy showers and thunderstorms may
continue to grow a bit more in coverage over the next few hours.
Given slow cell-motions and heavy rainfall rates, some instances
of flash flooding will be possible overnight.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows areas of
heavy showers and thunderstorms developing across portions of
eastern NM to the north of a quasi-stationary front.

The activity is developing in response to strengthening easterly
low-level flow which is yielding stronger moisture convergence and
localized upslope flow near some of the higher terrain. A narrow
corridor of instability is also seen north of the front with
MLCAPE values of as much as 1500 J/kg.

Over the next few hours, a combination of relatively divergent
flow aloft and the pool of moisture and instability transport may
yield some expansion of the convection off to the north and east.
This may include some portions of the east-facing slopes of the
Sangre De Cristo mountains and eventually could include areas of
the TX Panhandle north of the front where convection over eastern
NM may organize enough to propagate east into the moist/unstable
low-level flow over the open southern High Plains.

Rainfall rates with some of the stronger storms may reach 1 to 2
inches/hour, and given slow cell-motions in general with the
activity, some storm totals by dawn may reach 2 to 4 inches with
isolated heavier amounts possible. Thus, some instances of flash
flooding may occur with these areas of heavy showers and
thunderstorms.

Orrison

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!78z4HrunpQ8L24M2K0vB58rcKd59eScTPNMEgok9clI-LtknGY6LQA5-gW05qojx98pl=
L5-qzGJowh-OgZkNdef6pKk$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...LUB...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   36500391 36350297 35500137 34320150 33910246=20
            34170445 34310511 34680552 35180554 35850526=20
            36360470=20

=3D =3D =3D
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