Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Jul 05 2024 04:42:03

AWUS01 KWNH 050441
FFGMPD
ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-050900-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0560
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1241 AM EDT Fri Jul 05 2024

Areas affected...Far Northern AR...South-Central and Southeast MO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 050440Z - 050900Z

SUMMARY...Clusters of showers and thunderstorms impacting portions
of far northern AR and into south-central and southeast MO over
the next few hours are expected to maintain a threat of flash
flooding given very heavy rainfall rates.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows clusters
of very cold-topped convection (-70 to -75C) over far northern AR
and southern MO gradually lifting off to the northeast as a wave
of low pressure advances northeast up along a quasi-stationary
front. A substantial pool of instability is noted along and just
to the southeast of this front with as much as 1500 to 2500 J/kg
of MLCAPE in place.

Moisture flux convergence magnitudes are rather strong in close
proximity to the low center and this has been a major reason for
the level of convective organization currently seen in both radar
and satellite imagery. Right-entrance region upper-jet dynamics
overhead are also facilitating deeper layer ascent, and this
coupled with the favorable pool of thermodynamics along the front
should help sustain a southwest to northeast focus of convection
overnight that will continue to impact areas of south-central to
southeast MO in particular.

Rainfall rates with some of the stronger storms have already been
observed in the 2.0 to 2.5 inch/hour range, and with relatively
slow cell-motions and some occasional instances of cell-training,
some storm totals overnight may reach 3 to 4 inches.

Additional areas of flash flooding will be possible with these
clusters of heavy showers and thunderstorms, and especially if
these cells can overlap with any areas that have seen a moistening
of soil conditions due to recent heavy rainfall.

Orrison

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!9eF_rXSZ_5--BvozTVkWqd_ultjdis_Pi8Qum8q5W44ddH6uDOsRAe1hAv95V00gmavX=
1G5s7Pv5Zrjc6O862pG4mns$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...LZK...MEG...PAH...SGF...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   38269129 38179018 37598955 36758983 36259096=20
            36329280 37229320 37899273=20

=3D =3D =3D
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