Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri Jul 05 2024 01:01:08 ACUS01 KWNS 050101 SWODY1 SPC AC 050059 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024 Valid 050100Z - 051200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ....SUMMARY... Scattered marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible this evening in parts of the southern Plains, Ozarks and upper Mississippi Valley. ....Southern Plains/Ozarks... The latest surface analysis has a cold front analyzed from the eastern Texas Panhandle into central/northeast Oklahoma and western Missouri. A moist airmass is located along the front, with surface dewpoints from the upper 60s to the upper 70s F. RAP analysis has MLCAPE near the front ranging from around 2000 J/kg in the southeast Texas Panhandle to near 4000 J/kg in northeast Oklahoma. WSR-88D VWPs near Oklahoma City and Tulsa generally have 0-6 km shear in the 25 to 30 knot range. This, along with the moderate to strong instability should be enough to continue a marginal severe threat this evening. The marginal threat is expected to develop into the southern Ozarks over the next few hours, as new convection initiates. The stronger cells near the instability axis could also be associated with isolated damaging wind gusts. ....Upper Mississippi Valley... The latest water vapor imagery shows an upper-level trough moving through the mid Missouri Valley. At the surface, a moist airmass is located ahead of the front, with a surface low over the upper Mississippi Valley. A cold front extends south-southwestward through northeastern and central Iowa. Surface dewpoints ahead of the front are generally are in the 65 to 70 F range, with RAP analysis showing MLCAPE from 1000 to 1200 J/kg. Thunderstorms are ongoing along and near an axis of instability. Near this axis, the WSR-88D VWP at Lacrosse, Wisconsin has 0-6 km shear near 40 knots. This, along with the amount of instability should be sufficient for a marginal severe threat this evening. A few isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be the primary threats. ...Broyles.. 07/05/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .