Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1533
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jul 04 2024 16:30:32

ACUS11 KWNS 041630
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041630=20
KYZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-041900-

Mesoscale Discussion 1533
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024

Areas affected...northern Kentucky...far southern Indiana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 041630Z - 041900Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...A corridor of scattered damaging gusts or marginal hail
potential exists over much of central and northern Kentucky and
toward the Ohio River.

DISCUSSION...Within a weak surface trough and on the southern
periphery of the earlier rain/outflow, an extremely moist air mass
continues to heat and destabilize. Mid 70s F dewpoints exist along
with GPW PWAT values over 2.25". Meanwhile, strong heating exists
south of the outflow/frontal zone, with warming into the lower 90s
F.

Primarily westerly flow exists across the area, except
west/southwest within the boundary layer. As such, little northward
movement in the existing surface theta-e gradient is anticipated
over the next few hours.

VWPs indicate 35+ kt speeds at 700 mb, with around 50 kt at 500 mb.
As a result, developing robust storms now over southern IN and
western KY are likely to intensify and perhaps expand a bit in N/S
coverage through the afternoon. Ample PWAT to support downbursts,
steepening low-level lapse rates, and favorable low to midlevel mean
wind speeds all support a developing damaging wind threat, and a
watch may be needed.

...Jewell/Gleason.. 07/04/2024

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!7CH-M0lfiLy8AtQfnYWeVmrmyvPUuhbzhFv28EVhTveFdIgX87IVbpTUfy0paXfHbCYWSYGdo=
9yu9h5KwnJn4xuMp4Q$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...PAH...

LAT...LON   37518361 37558684 37578711 37638730 37978688 38348659
            38598628 38748569 38768439 38778332 38438292 37988290
            37648298 37518361=20


=3D =3D =3D
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