Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1531
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jul 04 2024 01:55:59

ACUS11 KWNS 040155
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040155=20
NEZ000-KSZ000-040330-

Mesoscale Discussion 1531
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0855 PM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024

Areas affected...northwest/north-central KS and south-central NE

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 502...504...

Valid 040155Z - 040330Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 502, 504
continues.

SUMMARY...Strong to severe wind gusts of 50-70 mph along with
marginal hail from 0.75-1.25 inches in diameter will remain possible
over the next couple hours across parts of northwest to
north-central Kansas and  south-central Nebraska. An additional
severe thunderstorm watch farther east appears unlikely.

DISCUSSION...A recent uptick in the trailing portion of a
predominately non-severe QLCS occurred in far southwest NE, yielding
a measured severe gust of 55 kts at the McCook ASOS. This portion of
the line appears likely to merge with a more north/south-oriented
cluster over northwest KS which has produced a measured strong gust
of 46 kts at the Colby AWOS. The thermodynamic environment
immediately downstream is still favorable for occasional
intensification during the next hour or so. But towards 04-05Z, the
combination of increasing MLCIN and diminishing buoyancy with
eastern extent suggests the severe wind threat should wane east of
north-central KS.

...Grams.. 07/04/2024

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9pWELq0NfKPfbUzMsQHUM4CJg-6BukQydjR5_3XunWZ7qpus74DkinVppPwX2_-wudjFU3cB2=
Ps9rRCCn2Pjtdj_iO0$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   40360005 40449972 40649905 41269835 41479780 41249715
            40559728 39469786 39159831 38829909 38820002 38870087
            39570068 40360005=20


=3D =3D =3D
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