Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jul 04 2024 01:32:46

AWUS01 KWNH 040132
FFGMPD
WVZ000-OHZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-040630-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0550
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
931 PM EDT Wed Jul 03 2024

Areas affected...Southeast MO...KY...Southern IND...Southern
OH...Western WV...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 040130Z - 040630Z

SUMMARY...A few more hours of scattered to numerous thunderstorms
capable of 2"+/hr and spots of 2-3" and possible localized flash
flooding.

DISCUSSION...Regional RADAR mosaic depicts a line of scattered
thunderstorms along the old deep layer convergence zone across the
Ohio Valley back into southeast MO. Cells have become a bit more
fractured and have started producing outflow boundaries to the
south due to stabilizing environment with the loss of day-time
heating.  Still within the narrow moisture ribbon/confluence zone,
the LLJ is strengthening slightly to 15-20kts with locations
further southwest increasing to 25kts.  Higher unstable/theta-E
air still resides in the Mississippi and Lower Ohio/Tennessee
River valleys with 2000-3000 J/kg of CAPE, so there remains a
greater potential for maintaining or even redeveloping a few
thunderstorms across the Tri-Rivers area with deep layer steering
resulting in training toward Western and west-central KY though
the early overnight period.

Given Deep moisture and modest flux convergence, rates of
2-2.5"/hr are still probable upstream while downstream into E KY,
rates will slowly tick down toward 1.5-2"/hr.  As such, spots of
2-4" may still exist across the western portion while 1-3" may be
a bit more common further east.  Both rates/totals will provide
localized flash flooding risks, given lower FFG due to complex
terrain further but incidents should reduce in coverage/magnitude
as the cells slowly weaken.

Gallina

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!-MwQ99MNfjUFmb7MYtMYjiUuUE50R4EoiC-BnJrfZGdE6vtrn36UY0ADe8zn6JEWGV5Q=
xgWEu6ZQT0JwBixyqH9FKJo$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...JKL...LMK...MEG...OHX...PAH...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...NCRFC...OHRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   39028253 38538161 37938172 37438248 36808479=20
            36538675 36438830 36318929 36198983 36249035=20
            36469070 37039058 37858875 38418672 38788480=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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