Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1525
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Jul 03 2024 22:28:56

ACUS11 KWNS 032228
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032228=20
KSZ000-COZ000-032330-

Mesoscale Discussion 1525
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0528 PM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024

Areas affected...east-central CO into far northwest KS

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 501...502...

Valid 032228Z - 032330Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 501, 502
continues.

SUMMARY...The greatest risk for significant severe hail between
2-2.5 inches is anticipated through about 7 PM MDT over east-central
Colorado near the I-70 corridor. An increase in severe wind
potential is expected towards the northwest Kansas border.

DISCUSSION...A pair of slow-moving supercells between Denver and
Limon will have the greatest potential to produce large hail beyond
2 inches over the next 2-3 hours. These storms will move towards the
peak buoyancy plume characterized by MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg along
the CO/KS border area. With favorable westerly speed shear above 2
km AGL per the FTG/PUX VWP data, in conjunction with a modest
increase in low-level south-southeasterly flow in the next few
hours, intensification of these supercells is plausible. This will
also include a risk for increasing severe wind gusts, as
persistently indicated by recent WoFS guidance.

...Grams.. 07/03/2024

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_SKMGncM4xcB5itgOou56ycGN1pdsiCbTE3R-LdpeW79smKurrl_vB8jXIPfGa6kG0nQDigJc=
fStxz7ZxeslmTqnelA$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GLD...BOU...

LAT...LON   39830361 39980274 39970215 39660166 39120175 38850206
            38660292 38850368 39380403 39830361=20


=3D =3D =3D
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