Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Jul 03 2024 20:45:44 AWUS01 KWNH 032045 FFGMPD KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-040200- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0547 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 444 PM EDT Wed Jul 03 2024 Areas affected...South-central & Southeastern MO into Lower Ohio River Valley... Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 032045Z - 040200Z SUMMARY...Intense rates of to 2.5"/hr and favorable deep layer flow for potential training may overcome ground/soil conditions resulting in some possible localized flash flooding prior to higher potential into the overnight period.=20 DISCUSSION...20z surface analysis denotes cold front sagged across central IL into central MO and into southeastern KS; however, a pre-frontal trough/outflow boundary from last evening intersects/parallels the boundary from south-central MO across SE MO into the Ohio River Valley and through SW to central OH. Solid cloud cover has strengthened frontogensis across the area with a 20-25 degree gradient from central MO to S MO/N AR where temps are in the low 90s though surface Tds remain in the mid to upper 70s throughout he zone. Full insolation has resulted in a strong instability gradient that orients to the outflow boundary favorably. MLCAPE of 2500-3500 J/kg exist across S-SE MO and into W KY but remain in close proximity to the deeper q-axis that exists in/just along the southern boundary of the cloud line.=20 Total PWat values of 2-2.25" are well above normal and with some weak northerly flux and combination with low level high moisture values in the area, should allow for high flux convergence to support 2.5"/hr rates with perhaps an occasional 3" value, though inflow is still weak at 5-10kts. Favorable right entrance divergence will be increasing through the late evening providing broader scale ascent and sufficient outflow to maintain stronger updrafts; however, it is the orientation of the mean flow that may allow for cell repeating/training in the evening and incidents of 3-4" in 1-3hrs. Hydrologically, high rates of this magnitude usually overcome most ground conditions; however, there are some moderately dry conditions and naturally higher FFG values in the region that even 3-4" total may be at the limit of the FFG values. Still, drier than normal conditions, may make for harder grounds and limit infiltration. So scattered incidents of flash flooding are possible, especially if low level flow strengthens and propagation vectors support back-building, at worst, these rainfall totals will set the stage for the next round later into tomorrow morning. Gallina ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-kJW4WpQW6ZAwWVH7cySMtqfAKm5N8_z644KyXejt7eJOmQa-r8HpzhkXX7ocrNd3XYR= P0U3QJbjsbG7b9_nNUzYVEM$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LSX...PAH...SGF... ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...OHRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 38638988 38638901 38338790 37778755 37198804=20 36838951 36579121 36649333 37489359 38219205=20 38469109=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .