Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1517
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Jul 03 2024 00:03:18

ACUS11 KWNS 030003
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030002=20
MOZ000-KSZ000-030130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1517
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0702 PM CDT Tue Jul 02 2024

Areas affected...Northeast Kansas...Northern Missouri

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 498...

Valid 030002Z - 030130Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 498
continues.

SUMMARY...Convective threat will increase across northeast Kansas
and northern Missouri this evening.

DISCUSSION...Southern influence of central Plains short-wave trough
is beginning to affect the lower MO Valley region. Height falls will
glance northeast KS/northern MO this evening and this should
encourage a gradual expansion of convection along/ahead of surface
front. Additionally, LLJ is forecast to strengthen into northern MO
in response to the approaching short wave. This is expected to aid a
potential MCS that will sag southeast across a reservoir of strong
buoyancy (3000 J/kg MLCAPE). Primary risk remains damaging winds.

...Darrow.. 07/03/2024

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!5oYYE4bIVD2K6tyWINvMus7AZrBlHwYze133Sjn8oj4gnvL1w1ZMZBhCp3CwR4FC7M48yN03O=
9PyWJejud2wiks3iVY$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...EAX...TOP...

LAT...LON   38509576 39829378 40179163 39689145 39149393 38139533
            38509576=20


=3D =3D =3D
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