Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jul 02 2024 23:28:29

AWUS01 KWNH 022328
FFGMPD
WIZ000-030330-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0543
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
728 PM EDT Tue Jul 02 2024

Areas affected...Southern Wisconsin...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 022330Z - 030330Z

SUMMARY...Quick moving but relatively efficient warm advection
showers crossing saturated/low FFG soils pose possible low-end
flash flooding over the next few hours.

DISCUSSION...23z surface analysis denotes a pre-frontal surface
low along the QLCS crossing eastern IA. The larger synoptic
triple-point remains further upstream across north-central IA with
the warm front crossing northeast IA into southern WI; generally
driven northward by clearing skies and strengthening 10-15kts of
south-southeasterly flow.  Temps have rebounded into the upper
70s/lower 80s with mid to upper 60s Tds in the vicinity of the
warm front, but not much to support surface based CAPE.  Still,
there is a modest 500-1000 J/kg of MUCAPE to maintain/develop a
few elevated thunderstorms north of the pre-frontal surface wave.=20
These cells have some overshooting tops and cooling to -60C and
with the low level moisture flux though 850mb should be supportive
of 1.5-2"/hr rates.  Forward speed is likely to limit overall
duration, given the orientation of the southwesterly steering
there is a bit of cross-tracks for the elevated cells to support
1-1.5 hours of heavy rainfall resulting a streak or two of
1.5-2.5" totals across southern Wisconsin in the next few hours.

This would normally be of little concern, but a recently wet
period has saturated the upper soil column with broad areas of
60-65+% ratios and 200-300% of normal over the last 7-14 days per
AHPS.  As such, hourly FFG values are below 1.5" and <2"/3hrs
across much of the MPD area.  Given the rates and totals,
localized flash flooding is considered possible through the
evening hours as the line passes.

Gallina

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!5uY9-JsRnk3TWpV1K7XABgMNG1CHp8sN_pUYpHTpf46Yb9Fuk2kbVRM06dxYftuGOZfw=
o14tTYfLqOGNwVZi0HhhQcE$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...GRB...MKX...

ATTN...RFC...NCRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   44538803 44268749 43378774 42838763 42518792=20
            42538998 42639058 43339045 43988947=20

=3D =3D =3D
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