Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue Jul 02 2024 00:56:34 AWUS01 KWNH 020056 FFGMPD MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-020655- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0537 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 855 PM EDT Mon Jul 01 2024 Areas affected...South-Central to Eastern NE...Western IA Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 020055Z - 020655Z SUMMARY...Heavy rainfall from training bands of showers and thunderstorms is expected going into the overnight hours across south-central to eastern NE and eventually western IA. At least scattered instances of flash flooding are likely to occur. DISCUSSION...Organizing bands of heavy showers and thunderstorms are currently seen growing gradually upscale across areas of central and southern NE as a strengthening southwest low-level jet focuses a significant pool of moisture and instability out ahead of a wave of low pressure developing along a front over northwest KS. MUCAPE values of 2000 to 3000 J/kg are noted in close proximity to a warm front that is extending east from this area of low pressure along the KS/NE border, and the low-level jet overnight overrunning this boundary is forecast by the latest hires model consensus to reach 50+ kts. Strong warm air advection/isentropic ascent and frontogenetic forcing combined with the elevated instability pool should favor strong convection with heavy rainfall potential considering the anomalously high PW environment that is also in place. PWs across eastern NE are on the order of 1.75 to 2.0 inches, and the 00Z OAX sounding had a PW of 1.86 inches. These PWs are on the order of 2 to 3 standard deviations above normal, and with the elevated CAPE parameters and a strongly sheared environment conducive for strong/organized updrafts, the rainfall rates may reach as high as 2.0 to 2.5 inches/hour. Eventually the convection overnight should become more linearly aligned with the deeper layer steering flow from the southwest, and this will encourage there being eventually areas of training convection and potentially some backbuilding cells around the southern and southwest flanks of the convection. This may result in some rainfall totals going through 06Z of as much as 3 to 5 inches with isolated heavier amounts possible. At least scattered instances of flash flooding are likely to materialize in time, and this will include impacts to the more urbanized locations as well. Orrison ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!69EEZo8Uo4Uf7gRhGnVvDnQJtxnx6XWgO-Dk2NFTRSqSJRMJylDPXNWUCfsJczyGax4L= KpN_ahphqnMurw7GrH677BY$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...GID...OAX... ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 42309629 42159489 41439462 40609535 40029687=20 39979886 40519940 41239896 41889776=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .