Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue Jul 02 2024 00:22:00 AWUS01 KWNH 020021 FFGMPD TXZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-020620- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0536 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 821 PM EDT Mon Jul 01 2024 Areas affected...Eastern AZ...Western/Central NM Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 020020Z - 020620Z SUMMARY...Monsoonal shower and thunderstorm activity will continue through the evening hours over especially areas of eastern AZ through western and central NM. Areas of heavy rainfall will likely result in additional areas of flash flooding will notable concerns for the area dry washes and burn scar locations. DISCUSSION...The late-day GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows numerous clusters of cold-topped convection over eastern AZ through western and central NM as the diurnal heating cycle in conjunction with deep monsoonal moisture and orographics=20 continues to foster a favorable environment for redeveloping and sustainable areas of heavy shower and thunderstorm activity. MLCAPE values are still locally on the order of 1000 to 1500+ J/kg, with the greatest instability generally over western NM and southeast AZ. Multiple outflow/mesoscale boundary collisions are also occurring with the ongoing activity which is helping to generate new areas of convection while gradually working to stabilize the boundary layer. PWs over the region remain anomalously high with values that are locally 2 to 3 standard deviations above normal, and with the lingering instability and influence of orographic forcing, the rainfall rates at least going through the evening hours will still be capable of reaching 1 to 2 inches/hour with the stronger storms. Some spotty additional totals where storms locally remain terrain-focused may reach 2 to 4 inches. Later in the evening as daytime instability is increasingly exhausted, the convection should gradually weaken. However, for at the next several hours, the additional areas of heavy rainfall are likely to result in more areas of flash flooding with the area dry washes and burn scars remaining vulnerable to enhanced impacts. Orrison ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8t2S1eBWD3EIjyM7kuMjhaL7gp2E4a_ZhvidvBWzmLppf4HTQG40sIuCg3FrJw0RRAVt= DQjllhIpJhWT6ZaN_t0eNBM$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...PSR...TWC... ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...CBRFC...WGRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 36650571 36440516 36050460 35160415 33790446=20 32600525 31670653 31230787 31260944 32191097=20 33251138 34291084 35200907 35850825 36260739=20 36580648=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .