Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jul 01 2024 01:40:48

AWUS01 KWNH 010140
FFGMPD
TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-UTZ000-010740-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0528
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
940 PM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Areas affected...Southwest U.S.

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 010140Z - 010740Z

SUMMARY...Broken clusters of heavy showers and thunderstorms will
continue through the evening hours. Additional areas of flash
flooding are likely, and especially with ongoing sensitivities
over multiple wash locations and burn scar areas that have already
seen flash flooding today.

DISCUSSION...The early evening GOES-E satellite imagery shows
broken coverage of cold-topped convection over large areas of
southern and western NM through central and eastern AZ and
northeastward up into far southeast UT and southwest CO. The
latest RAP analysis still shows as much as 1000 to 2000 J/kg of
MLCAPE lingering over southern NM and central/southern AZ.
Separately there is also a pocket of MLCAPE reaching 1500 J/kg
over southwest CO.

Despite the ongoing convective overturning process, sufficient
instability and moisture transport around the western periphery of
the subtropical ridge should favor convection linger well through
the evening hours. Proximity of some weak embedded vort energy and
shear should favor some of the convection also remaining somewhat
organized with some multicell convective clusters.

The PW environment remains very high and basically unchanged from
earlier in the day with values that are 2 to 3+ standard
deviations above normal. This combined with the instability and
influence from orographics/upslope flow over the terrain should
continue to favor rainfall rates reaching 1 to 2 inches/hour.

Additional storm totals of 2 to 4 inches of rain cannot be ruled
out locally, and the additional rains this evening will continue
to favor areas of flash flooding which may occur over some areas
that have already been hit this afternoon and early this evening.

The burn scar locations and normally dry washes will continue to
be the main focus for enhanced impacts and flash flooding concerns.

Orrison

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!-vqy9cTkuupIPijfKyOdwRmUg4umEAL00HUrLNZoICTh5YxPqGvKECzR6nL6ugIVMp-Q=
zU8ud88m1lHSi6spNLCFBhY$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...GJT...MAF...PSR...PUB...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...CBRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   38450773 38280610 37140624 35850612 34720568=20
            33590500 32210482 31250579 31250827 31051064=20
            31561244 32731309 33651364 34461325 35711140=20
            37210968=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.