Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jun 30 2024 18:43:45

AWUS01 KWNH 301843
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-010042-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0523
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
243 PM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Areas affected...central/eastern Kentucky, far western Virginia

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 301842Z - 010042Z

Summary...Scattered thunderstorm activity was producing estimated
1-1.5 inch/hr rain rates in a few spots just south-southeast of
Louisville across central Kentucky.  Additional convection
downstream of that activity will promote opportunities for
training/repeating that could cause localized flash flooding at
times through 00Z.

Discussion...Scattered convection has developed in earnest across
the discussion area over the past 1-2 hours.  Of particular
concern is a localized cluster producing 1-1.5 inch/hr
south-southeast of Louisville.  This complex, and associated cell
mergers with convection extending eastward through the Pikeville
vicinity and into portions of western Virginia should enable spots
of 1-1.5 inch/hr rain rates to continue to develop at times over
the next several hours.  The storms remain on the southern extent
of stronger mid-level flow aloft across the Great Lakes, and are
in an environment characterized by 3500 J/kg SBCAPE and 2 inch PW
values, supporting robust updrafts and efficient rain rates.

Convection will continue to develop/spread southeastward while
merging/locally training through 00Z.  FFG thresholds are in the
1-3 inch/hr range, but are lowest across southern/southeastern
Kentucky vicinity where 1-1.5 inch/hr thresholds are more common.
Flash flood potential should remain isolated and tied to the
extent of 1+ inch/hr rain rates through the evening, although the
threat should locally maximize where storms (and especially
mergers) occur across more locally sensitive locales.=20

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!-BzaN9n55EPpta-8PuVhfabuRQaOeT0_CX8i8mB4EzOJKth650J6nG8qWPFnCMaDxGmq=
eCOJter2G2JuZ4FyhpPeEoc$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JKL...LMK...MRX...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...OHRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   38108363 37908256 37438084 36858065 36458187=20
            36638445 36798614 37168643 37948491=20

=3D =3D =3D
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