Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1488
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jun 30 2024 14:35:25

ACUS11 KWNS 301435
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301434=20
MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-301630-

Mesoscale Discussion 1488
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0934 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Areas affected...Maine and New Hampshire

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely=20

Valid 301434Z - 301630Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage/intensity will gradually increase
into early afternoon. Damaging gusts and isolated hail will be
possible. A severe thunderstorm watch will likely be needed in the
next couple of hours.

DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms have already developed this
morning across portions of southern Quebec ahead of an
eastward-advancing cold front. Downstream from this activity,
modest/gradual destabilization is occurring across NH/ME where
heating is occurring amid scattered/broken clouds. Stronger heating
and richer boundary-layer moisture will likely remain focused across
parts of NH into western/coastal ME. Nevertheless, strong vertical
shear will remain in place over the area and instability will be
sufficient for bands/clusters of strong/severe storms into the
afternoon hours. Forecast soundings show a deeply mixed boundary
layer with steep low level lapse rates amid 45+ kt effective shear
by early afternoon, supporting damaging wind potential. Straight,
elongated hodographs also suggest hail may be possible with any more
discrete storm mode. A severe thunderstorm watch will likely be
needed for portions of the area within the next couple of hours.

...Leitman/Gleason.. 06/30/2024

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!5R5Vx-mV10z7iqSpTV5DBQz685_M6VZxcIBJWQOPTz0A4ac0YNHI2gRhR3Yei2GQUyorl4_ix=
9l_c1SIv04DkwoiPmI$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BTV...

LAT...LON   46936760 45146690 44086809 43087095 43317167 43677184
            45357128 47006981 47196947 47226831 46936760=20


=3D =3D =3D
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