Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1471
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jun 29 2024 06:51:38

ACUS11 KWNS 290651
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290651=20
NEZ000-290845-

Mesoscale Discussion 1471
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0151 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Areas affected...parts of southwestern and south central Nebraska

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 290651Z - 290845Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated intense supercell may continue to pose a risk
for large hail (up to 2+ inches in diameter) and potentially
damaging wind gusts across and east-southeast of the Lexington
vicinity through 2 to 3 AM CDT.  Thereafter, it seems probable that
it will weaken.  Trends are being monitored, but a severe weather
watch is not currently anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Forcing for recent intense, isolated supercell
development to the east southeast of North Platte is unclear.  It
appears focused within a corridor of higher boundary-layer moisture
content supportive of sizable CAPE up to 2000 J/kg, along baroclinic
zone where low-level warm advection may have become enhanced.  Aided
by strong shear, radar data suggests that this cell has been
producing severe hail, and this east-southeastward propagating cell
may eventually pose a risk for locally strong surface gusts if it is
maintained long enough.  However, based on the Rapid Refresh, the
developing frontal zone is in the process of surging southward at a
pace that may tend to undercut the storm and contribute to
stabilizing trends within the next couple of hours.

...Kerr/Edwards.. 06/29/2024

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!7ekkNE8iY7cv-6l7zv0pY8-5b0YjMjhXSF7k-AVWUK9kNFBiQeO8y7EtWlq9ltXPBeA1bbVpI=
uGp1vjwQR1Dw9ISEKc$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...

LAT...LON   40960011 40999960 40869855 40479888 40610038 40760037
            40960011=20


=3D =3D =3D
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