Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Jun 29 2024 01:23:45 AWUS01 KWNH 290123 FFGMPD MOZ000-KSZ000-290700- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0511 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 921 PM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Areas affected...Eastern Kansas & Western Missouri Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 290120Z - 290700Z SUMMARY...Extreme levels of moisture and instability are supporting storms capable of rainfall rates exceeding 3 inches per hour. This will likely cause additional flash flooding into tonight. DISCUSSION...The combination of multiple ingredients that are present in extreme levels is increasing concerns for flash flooding across eastern Kansas and western Missouri this evening. SBCAPE values of over 5,000 J/kg are present over southeast Kansas according to SPC Mesoanalysis. Further, PWATs have increased to 2.2 inches...which is almost 3 sigma above normal and above the 95th percentile compared to climatology for this time of year. Finally that very moisture-and-instability-rich air mass is being advected northeastward on a strengthening low-level jet. This has resulted in a few very strong supercells developing over eastern Kansas, that have been very slow-moving, especially the one to the north and west on this radar imagery. That cell has produced rainfall rates exceeding 3 inches per hour as it barely moves to the west of Topeka right along I-70. Meanwhile the cell to its south and east has been quickly intensifying as its northern edge approaches Topeka, while also moving very slowly towards the northeast. FFGs in Topeka, Kansas City, and the surrounding areas are around 2 inches per hour, a rate that is easily being exceeded by the storms that have formed so far. Unfortunately, CAMs guidance has been poor with the behavior of these storms so far. Of those that have realized these storms at all, they generally have been too fast with moving them south and east. Thus, certainty on the flash flooding threat for southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri is low. Further, whether the storms continue slowly drifting east and impacting Kansas City or if the strongest storms turn a bit to the south and largely miss the metro is also uncertain. Storms developing further north along the line into far northeastern Kansas and northwestern Missouri have been weaker, but FFGs in the area are considerably lower due to recent rainfall, and thus the flash flooding threat is considerable in that area as well even if the heaviest rains are likely to miss areas around St. Joseph. Wegman ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4BoTnygq9VpKRiOWRYhiBvv4cgvALCZSoxvryx6sm1xz1bGg5TZ94EiDacM5NTDfcC6z= 3PPkdKTvJpR5UDldawaLzyc$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...SGF...TOP... ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 39999506 39799426 39609416 39359403 39119362=20 38899313 38589285 38039268 37489324 37229450=20 37089562 37509624 38509667 38869675 39409631=20 39409627 39969579=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .