Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1466
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jun 29 2024 01:08:35

ACUS11 KWNS 290108
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290108=20
IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-290245-

Mesoscale Discussion 1466
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0808 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

Areas affected...portions of western Iowa

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 290108Z - 290245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Some increase in the severe threat is possible over the
next couple of hours over western into central IA. Large hail and
damaging gusts are the main threats.

DISCUSSION...Convective initiation is underway along a baroclinic
boundary in western Iowa, where at least a few landspouts have
already occurred. These storms are intensifying in an environment
characterized by 3000+ J/kg MLCAPE and 40 kts of effective bulk
shear. While landspouts remain possible over the next hour or so,
the ongoing storms should move away from the boundary with a
continued threat of marginal severe hail and wind. It is unclear how
prevalent the severe threat will be in the long term, but convective
trends will continue to be monitored for the need of a WW issuance.

...Squitieri/Smith.. 06/29/2024

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!53RCEiC_-uKt9s5DmbtQBHolQ0eHcTudn2aNV6WWHMoETAuFCFdoahBrcZmvQI9-Yw_AnF5jI=
j791ExshDaTagjFTuo$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...

LAT...LON   40659583 41549505 42069442 42049377 41589302 41049289
            40599317 40449402 40479499 40659583=20


=3D =3D =3D
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