Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1464
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Jun 28 2024 22:25:52

ACUS11 KWNS 282225
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 282224=20
NDZ000-290000-

Mesoscale Discussion 1464
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0524 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

Areas affected...portions of northern North Dakota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 282224Z - 290000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated severe hail/wind are possible this afternoon.
Given the isolated nature of the severe threat, a WW issuance is not
currently expected.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are intensifying along a pronounced
baroclinic boundary that resides immediately ahead of an approaching
500 mb vort max along the ND/MT border region. Along this boundary,
8 C/km 0-3 km lapse rates are present, boosting the 0-3 km CAPE to
over 150 J/kg in spots (per 22Z mesoanalysis). Given modest
deep-layer shear, shorter-lived multicells capable of isolated
instances of severe hail and wind are expected. If more dominant,
cellular convection can anchor to the boundary for any appreciable
period of time, a landspout tornado cannot be ruled out.
Nonetheless, given how sparse and marginal the severe threat is
expected to be, a WW issuance is not currently anticipated.

...Squitieri/Smith.. 06/28/2024

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4aRkLxee-KNHxrwsJE3xCrN-0KzoQ14KLeC8uVW_0ORPMEvIUJ7LQXVJSDR8VbFXk3Jpu5gMF=
nQY8rAQolSvT-OO4ZQ$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

LAT...LON   49080303 49200144 48740018 48239969 47709973 47360017
            47300058 47510127 47960196 49080303=20


=3D =3D =3D
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