Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1447
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jun 27 2024 20:18:53

ACUS11 KWNS 272018
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272018=20
NEZ000-KSZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-272145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1447
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0318 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

Areas affected...Portions of the central and northern High Plains

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely=20

Valid 272018Z - 272145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Monitoring the area for increasing severe-storm potential
this afternoon. A watch will be needed for parts of the area within
the hour.

DISCUSSION...Deepening boundary-layer cumulus is evident in the
vicinity of the Black Hills as well as far northeast CO into the NE
Panhandle this afternoon -- generally focused along a lee
trough/surface wind shift. During the next couple hours, the lee
trough will deepen as midlevel westerly flow strengthens across the
northern and central Rockies. This will support a gradual increase
in thunderstorm development over the next few hours, given diurnal
heating of a moist air mass (upper 50s to middle/upper 60s
dewpoints) and removal of MLCINH along the lee trough.=20

Storms should generally track eastward into the increasingly rich
moisture, where steep midlevel lapse rates are yielding moderate
surface-based instability. The 19Z UNR special sounding showed
around 30 kt of effective shear, characterized by a long/mostly
straight hodograph, and deep-layer shear should strengthen to around
40-50 kt with time. As a result, storms should organize into
semi-discrete supercells and organized clusters, with a risk of very
large hail (potentially up to 3 inches) and severe gusts.=20

A watch issuance is likely for parts of the area within the hour.

...Weinman/Hart.. 06/27/2024

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!6dIocms3FRA7akq4usdUjq4aJKFO744B_z14R9oU2VfVcGk9IH6YSFdwrLV83DFcwqzfAKcBh=
eq1UdPc5q1Up9jk79w$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON   43520402 44730412 45490378 45760326 45860213 45770174
            45370112 44440058 42140017 40379993 39270005 38960071
            38860163 39110228 40230279 41450348 43520402=20


=3D =3D =3D
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