Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1437
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Jun 26 2024 23:39:46

ACUS11 KWNS 262339
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262339=20
TXZ000-OKZ000-270115-

Mesoscale Discussion 1437
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0639 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Areas affected...Parts of south-central Oklahoma into Northeast
Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 262339Z - 270115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Storms may be capable of large hail and severe wind gusts.
The tornado threat is conditional, but present. Depending on
convective trends, a watch is possible.

DISCUSSION...Strong heating near an outflow boundary has promoted
storm development in the last 30 minutes. Strong buoyancy (MLCAPE
2500-3000 J/kg) and 45-50 kts of effective shear will promote
organized storms. The primary hazards will be large hail (up to 2
inches in diameter in the strongest storms) and severe wind gusts.
The tornado risk does appear to be low, but is not zero. A mature
storm far enough east into the outflow, where LCLs are lower and
winds modestly more backed, could produce a tornado. The risk is
quite conditional, however. Storm coverage is a bit uncertain as
well given the departing mid-level trough to the east.

...Wendt/Smith.. 06/26/2024

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!5vdekjCzzp2nhxegN12YVQdr0cUPHeVILOR10T61IdgFF8SDJ6v26FhGBQZie95Crie8kDTwj=
W34UQozSXAvIM4WqCc$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   33969711 34429658 34319596 33449530 32759541 32619590
            32719646 32869678 33969711=20


=3D =3D =3D
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