Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1434
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Jun 26 2024 22:29:44

ACUS11 KWNS 262229
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262229=20
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-270000-

Mesoscale Discussion 1434
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0529 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Areas affected...Southeast Colorado into northern Texas
Panhandle..Oklahoma Panhandle...far southwest Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 262229Z - 270000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Though coverage may remain isolated, the strongest storms
will be capable of large hail and severe winds. Trends will be
monitored for a possible watch late this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Moist upslope flow into the Raton Mesa and nearby
vicinity has led to a cluster storms within parts of the
Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle as well as more isolated development in
southeastern Colorado. Modest westerly mid-level winds within the
upper-level ridge atop easterly/southeasterly surface winds have
promoted modest effective shear of around 30-35 kts. Given weak
forcing, storm organization my remain relatively brief/sporadic and
coverage of severe storms may remain isolated. The strongest storms
will be capable of large hail and severe winds. It is possible that
a more organized wind threat could materialize if storms can
cluster. A northward moving boundary in southeast Colorado could
provide a focus for this. A watch is possible, but with coverage
being uncertain, convective trends will continue to be monitored
late this afternoon.

...Wendt/Smith.. 06/26/2024

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!8WoZenBPoSFx6bCU2q_ne69QW1jPDq0f2hQzRaGGlb7O_iPeqdMuXIJ0Y-yYvVWnUqI2GavX7=
Ub_STJLMUGVvz9Nq28$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

LAT...LON   37280389 37440405 37640415 38220402 38440324 38350254
            37960199 37740182 36790112 36220114 36020146 35950219
            36040271 36490327 37280389=20


=3D =3D =3D
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