Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Jun 26 2024 16:48:34

AWUS01 KWNH 261648
FFGMPD
NYZ000-PAZ000-OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-262040-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0502
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1243 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Areas affected...Northeastern IN...Northern OH...Northwestern PA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 261540Z - 262040Z

SUMMARY...Training storms are expected to continue to develop over
the region, with the threat for locally heavy amounts and possible
flash flooding increasing during the afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Mesoanalysis shows a shortwave trough associated with
overnight convection moving east from the mid Mississippi Valley
as a northern stream trough and its associated cold front move
across the upper Great Lakes.  Ahead of these features, low level
west-southwesterly flow is supporting an increase in moisture in
an area of enhanced ascent generated in part by right-entrance
region upper jet dynamics.  Radar shows convection beginning to
train from northeastern Indiana into northwestern Ohio, with rates
increasing along with an uptick in instability.  Guidance is
showing a good signal for sustained moisture advection (PWs
increasing to around 1.75 inches) and ascent across northern Ohio,
expanding into northwest Pennsylvania -- supporting training
storms and the threat for locally heavy amounts ahead of the
front.  HREF neighborhood probabilities indicate that localized
amounts of 2 inches or more are likely over the next few hours.=20
Localized rainfall amounts exceeding 3-hour flash flood guidance
values can be expected, especially over northeastern Ohio into
northwestern Pennsylvania.

Pereira

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!8QZDPxvu_o-3TMDJY8lup_9o21K8ovNqlwLsvNpZZF-0mxMDGM_M80ImVp9-HV0Pzc5W=
v2Yw1BfE1PSY8mQ4jUfAvEY$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BUF...CLE...CTP...DTX...IWX...PBZ...

ATTN...RFC...NCRFC...OHRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   42098017 42077934 41637930 41108099 40978304=20
            41108458 41248618 41738395 41498242 41608167=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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