Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1409
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jun 25 2024 18:27:33

ACUS11 KWNS 251827
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251826=20
INZ000-ILZ000-252000-

Mesoscale Discussion 1409
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0126 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Areas affected...eastern Illinois and southwest Indiana

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 457...

Valid 251826Z - 252000Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 457
continues.

SUMMARY...The greatest damaging wind threat will exist across
eastern Illinois and southwest Indiana this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Fast moving outflow has far outpaced convection across
much of Illinois. However, across the eastern portion of the state,
the shear vector is more favorably aligned to the outflow boundary
and thus, more robust convection has developed. These storms are
also on the northeast periphery of the more unstable airmass with
2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE. From these storms southeastward (aligned with
the deep layer shear vector) expect the strongest storms this
afternoon. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat although
some marginally large hail may be possible, particularly for the
next hour while storms remain more cellular with some supercell
structures.

...Bentley/Hart.. 06/25/2024

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4uy1pl9mnKvqgJkhqOftQSd6bqL3Mkco6YsnFY_NiJkF_dNkn-A18dO5a2tCkmyH4FbwfONy4=
iBTjMQMWVTIcB-44M4$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...

LAT...LON   38518850 39138868 39468865 39658850 39868809 39838688
            39288642 38748623 38318666 38238762 38518850=20


=3D =3D =3D
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