Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue Jun 25 2024 05:59:28 ACUS02 KWNS 250559 SWODY2 SPC AC 250557 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC... ....SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds are possible over parts of the Northeast and Mid Atlantic on Wednesday. ....Upper Ohio Valley into the Northeast/Mid Atlantic... A mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move from the upper Midwest toward the lower Great Lakes and Northeast on Wednesday, with some potential for convectively enhanced vorticity maxima to move east-northeastward ahead of the primary shortwave. Rather moist low-level westerly flow will support potential for moderate diurnal destabilization from eastern OH into parts of the Northeast and northern Mid Atlantic, with stronger heating/mixing possible into parts of the southern Mid Atlantic. Scattered thunderstorm development will be possible Wednesday afternoon along/ahead of a cold front across parts of OH/PA and southern NY, which will spread eastward into the evening. Strengthening flow in the 700-500 mb layer will support sufficient effective shear for storm organization, with potential for a few organized clusters and perhaps a couple of supercells. Damaging wind and perhaps isolated hail will be possible, along with some potential for a brief tornado if a supercell can be sustained. The Slight Risk has been expanded southward across parts of the Mid Atlantic, due to increased confidence in storm coverage within a somewhat favorable environment across parts of MD/VA. ....Lower Ohio Valley into the Ozarks vicinity... Uncertainty regarding storm potential and evolution remains quite high from the lower Ohio Valley vicinity into the Ozarks. Elevated convection will likely be ongoing at the start of the period across multiple areas. An outflow-influenced front will be draped somewhere across the region through the day, to the south of a reinforcing cold front that will move southward from the upper Midwest. Modest northwesterly mid/upper-level flow will be in place across the region. Some diurnal intensification or redevelopment of storms will be possible near the front and any remaining outflow boundaries. The northwesterly flow regime may provide sufficient effective shear for some storm organization, with one or more clusters possible with a threat of damaging wind and perhaps some hail. ....Southeast WY/northeast CO into central High Plains... Moist low-level southeasterly flow is expected on Wednesday from eastern CO/WY into the NE Panhandle and southeast WY. Moderate destabilization will be possible during the afternoon within this regime. While the region will initially be under the influence of an upper-level ridge over the southern Rockies, guidance suggests potential for a low-amplitude shortwave trough to crest the ridge from WY into western SD. This will support potential for at least isolated thunderstorm development. Midlevel flow will be rather modest, but sufficient veering with height will support sufficient effective shear for storm organization, including some supercell potential with a threat of large hail and localized severe gusts. A strengthening nocturnal low-level jet could support some upscale growth, which could spread at least isolated severe-gust potential into parts of southwest NE and western KS. ....Upper Midwest... While guidance varies regarding destabilization potential across parts of the Upper Midwest, isolated storm development cannot be ruled out across the region, within a northwesterly flow regime. Moderate deep-layer shear would conditionally support strong to severe storms if sufficient instability can be realized, but confidence is too low to include probabilities for this potential at this time. ...Dean.. 06/25/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .