Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1383
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jun 23 2024 17:43:16

ACUS11 KWNS 231743
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231742=20
NYZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-231945-

Mesoscale Discussion 1383
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1242 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

Areas affected...Portions of the Ohio River Valley into southern New
York

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 231742Z - 231945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Severe storm risk will gradually increase through the
afternoon, with damaging winds being the primary concern. A watch
will likely be issued for parts of the area in the next few hours.

DISCUSSION...Ahead of a northeast/southwest-oriented cold front
draped across the OH River Valley, a corridor of upper 60s to lower
70s dewpoints and pockets of heating will contribute to moderate
surface-based instability -- despite poor midlevel lapse rates
sampled by 12Z observed soundings. As modest midlevel height falls=20
overspread the region, surface-based thunderstorms should gradually
increase in coverage along/ahead of the cold front.=20

Storms should slowly increase in intensity as they track eastward
and intercept the destabilizing warm/moist sector. Given ample
deep-layer westerly flow/shear (around 35-kt effective shear)
roughly perpendicular to the front, a mix of loosely organized
clusters and transient supercells are expected. Steepening low-level
lapse rates and the enhanced low/midlevel flow will favor locally
damaging gusts as the primary concern, especially with any localized
upscale growth. However, marginally severe hail and a tornado or two
cannot be ruled out, especially with any sustained semi-discrete
supercells. A watch (potentially two separate watches) will likely
be issued for parts of the area in the next few hours.

...Weinman/Hart.. 06/23/2024

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!5nW7iFNA_rboLgFRZsV7Wm6LxjfC8vYKf49loSzkk7O1NZnphsLh1ecO1AVtIQhHWCMqO5Jt1=
3P9i3TOM9Xz0ZBirjs$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...CLE...JKL...
ILN...LMK...

LAT...LON   40268200 41078095 41647995 42107886 42557771 42607687
            42437624 42137602 41737607 40937729 40347822 39857898
            39158017 38068234 37938362 38138434 38578444 39018438
            39378380 39738286 40268200=20


=3D =3D =3D
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