Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1371
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jun 22 2024 16:12:05

ACUS11 KWNS 221612
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221611=20
MAZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-221815-

Mesoscale Discussion 1371
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1111 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Areas affected...central into eastern NY...CT...RI...western and
central MA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 221611Z - 221815Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Storm coverage to increase with a corresponding uptick in
intensity expected 1-4pm EDT (17-20 UTC).  Widely scattered 50-65
mph gusts capable of wind damage will be the primary threat.=20
Marginally severe hail (0.75 to 1.25 inches in diameter) may occur
with the strongest cell.  An upgrade to Slight Risk is forthcoming
in the 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook.

DISCUSSION...The 12 UTC (8am EDT) Albany, NY raob showed a very
moist profile with PW 1.94 inches and weak lapse rates.  Around 500
J/kg MLCAPE was noted in this observed sounding.  Visible-satellite
imagery shows an agitated cumulus field over central and eastern NY
to the south of a few ongoing thunderstorms.  A stratus deck is
observed over the eastern half of MA into RI, and this stratus
loosely corresponds with the placement of a west-northwest to
east-southeast oriented stationary front.  Additional heating since
this morning's raob at Albany (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE likely at
midday) has contributed to a destabilizing airmass from central NY
east-southeast into CT to the south of the stationary front.=20=20

Of particular note compared to yesterday, slightly stronger 1-6 km
westerly flow (20-35 kt) is observed at the WSR-88D KENX VAD
(Albany).  This slight enhancement to westerly flow coupled with
MLCAPE rising into the 1500-2000 J/kg range and near 2 inches PW,
will probably favor a small cluster or two developing over the next
several hours.  As this thunderstorm cluster matures, it seems
plausible a focused area for 50-65 mph gusts and potential widely
scattered wind damage may occur from the Hudson Valley into MA/CT
and perhaps as far east as RI.

...Smith/Hart.. 06/22/2024

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-okVWgN38PwuHrC4WBcogY37qd9QZv_e5x2TlxNS6K3FF0g95qTHDZ57PweXse9TRkumaMmoZ=
qiR6zDdnyEKNVZkiao$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...BGM...

LAT...LON   43027488 43117456 43037350 42267161 41857142 41547143
            41337160 41277247 42547514 42857515 43027488=20


=3D =3D =3D
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