Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1354
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Jun 21 2024 17:36:25

ACUS11 KWNS 211736
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211735=20
MTZ000-211930-

Mesoscale Discussion 1354
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1235 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

Areas affected...Central Montana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 211735Z - 211930Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...A WW will likely be needed for Central MT this afternoon
as a few isolated supercells develop over the high terrain and move
east into an environment supportive of all severe hazards.

DISCUSSION...The current water vapor loop coupled with the RAP
upper-air analysis shows a subtle shortwave trough/vort max
approaching the Northern Rockies, with some morning convection
ongoing ahead of the wave. The boundary layer south and east of the
ongoing convection is characterized by mid 60s F surface
temperatures and mid-to-upper 50s F dewpoints, beneath steep
mid-level lapse rates of 8-9 C/km that are supportive of deep
convection later this afternoon. Morning soundings and SPC
Mesoanalysis indicate deep layer shear of 35-45 kts, suggesting
multicellular and supercellular storm modes are likely.=20

While ongoing convection over Judith Basin County appears to be
weakening, visible satellite indicates another region of developing
cumulus further to the west within a local minima of MLCINH,
suggesting additional development is likely within the next few
hours. RAP forecast profiles later this afternoon in Central MT
indicate buoyancy will increase to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE with deep layer
shear in the 45-50 kt range, suggesting a threat for supercells
capable of primarily damaging wind and hail, though also supportive
of tornadoes. Hodographs in South-Central MT are primarily
straight-line, indicating the potential for splitting supercells
capable of all hazards, while further north hodographs take on a
more curved shape in the low levels, supportive of a right-moving
supercell tornado threat.=20

Overall storm coverage is uncertain at this time, but a WW will
likely be needed later this afternoon for a few supercells that
develop and track eastward throughout the day, capable of all
hazards.

...Halbert/Weinman/Hart.. 06/21/2024

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4EMDjmWrz7b6mTkn-JSiQwjVwJS5Tj6N7_0br78UfX4rpAJpcg3DJiDZKaub1rcz-_qCMgWRF=
C0WFtL-IWc8HEA7-_4$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...

LAT...LON   48211193 48561099 48531030 48450901 47950766 47140682
            46660674 46310690 45900747 45540820 45460896 45870988
            46561058 46881100 47781190 48211193=20


=3D =3D =3D
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