Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1332
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Jun 19 2024 16:44:05

ACUS11 KWNS 191643
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191643=20
TXZ000-191915-

Mesoscale Discussion 1332
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1143 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Areas affected...parts of the TX Gulf Coast

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 191643Z - 191915Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Sporadic waterspouts may move onshore as a brief tornado
before likely weakening inland. Overall threat may remain relatively
lower-end in the near-term, but will continue to be monitored for a
narrow tornado watch.

DISCUSSION...Several offshore circulations have been noted late this
morning but with a consistent weakening trend as convection has
approached the coast. As of 1635Z, near-term waterspout threat
appears roughly centered from the Galveston to Corpus Christi
vicinity, where 0-1 km shear of 25-35 kts persists in HGX/CRP VWP
data. Visible satellite and radar trends suggest a 30-90 min
relative lull in convection may occur along the coast between the
ongoing band of cells and another band of cells 60-80 nm offshore.
This break may become necessary for some increase in surface-based
destabilization along the coast as modified 12Z CRP/BRO soundings
suggest it remains limited. If this occurs, an increase in brief
tornado potential may be realized this afternoon.

...Grams/Smith.. 06/19/2024

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!85vTfNvrTfw0na5FsIxLEemJTOZWXPdtGn0VXw3q9JZYpQXG15w2KBDIDZpJpeKHY6Dw9v_eg=
C9to_rnwXo19AdwIKM$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...BRO...

LAT...LON   29209503 28699529 28229636 27279717 26679729 26749770
            27959729 28869618 29209503=20


=3D =3D =3D
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