Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jun 18 2024 00:50:44

ACUS01 KWNS 180050
SWODY1
SPC AC 180048

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0748 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Valid 180100Z - 181200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...

....SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorm potential persists across
parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley, and over the central High
Plains and northern Plains tonight. Severe/damaging winds and large
hail are possible.

....01z Update...

Strong upper trough is shifting east across the northern Rockies
early this evening. Leading edge of large-scale support should
spread across the northern High Plains later this evening, and a
corridor up upscale growth in convection is expected over the
Dakotas. Farther south along the dryline, surface temperatures
remain in the 90s to near 100F across eastern CO into western
KS/southwest NE. Convection has struggled to develop along this wind
shift, partly due to weaker low-level convergence and less support
aloft. Some inhibition remains across western NE as evident by LBF
00z sounding. Despite a 91F surface temperature, capping is present
at 3km AGL. LLJ will increase after sunset and convection is
expected to evolve within the warm-advection corridor, in response
to the approaching trough.

As the northern Rockies trough approaches the Dakotas, strengthening
LLJ into the upper Red River Valley will tend to focus stronger
forcing into this region. Ongoing convection, that currently extends
from southeast MN into the eastern U.P. of MI, will gradually lift
north-northeast overnight; however, storms may struggle a bit,
especially after midnight when the northern Plains will become more
active.

...Darrow.. 06/18/2024

$$

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