Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1311
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jun 17 2024 23:55:48

ACUS11 KWNS 172355
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172355=20
MTZ000-WYZ000-180130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1311
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0655 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Areas affected...Northeast WY into southeast MT

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 430...

Valid 172355Z - 180130Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 430
continues.

SUMMARY...Some threat for isolated hail and strong/severe gusts will
continue this evening.

DISCUSSION...An earlier supercell over southeast MT has weakened
upon moving into a cooler and less unstable environment. However, a
couple stronger cells are ongoing this evening from extreme
southeast MT into northeast WY, and additional storm development and
intensification remains possible as a vigorous mid/upper-level
shortwave trough approaches the region from the interior Northwest.=20

Weak to moderate buoyancy and effective shear of 50+ kt will
continue to support occasional supercell structures, with a threat
of isolated hail and strong/severe gusts. The eastern extent of the
short-term severe threat will continue to be limited by strong
MLCINH.

...Dean.. 06/17/2024

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!963PRc7DhMWAepnrthoP6z87o7UrzgoAEZrpv7rEOMDm-Ohhl41yfrdR0j9qx9Q7A6J5QucZz=
PW7khgsvKwrEFbsuKo$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...UNR...BYZ...RIW...

LAT...LON   43750633 45800549 46070475 45810438 45250431 44390447
            43990476 43710515 43560596 43750633=20


=3D =3D =3D
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