Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1297
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jun 17 2024 07:56:36

ACUS11 KWNS 170756
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170755=20
WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-SDZ000-170930-

Mesoscale Discussion 1297
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0255 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Areas affected...southern MN into northern IA and west-central WI

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 170755Z - 170930Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and strong/severe wind gusts 50-65 mph
possible through early morning. A severe thunderstorm watch is being
considered.

DISCUSSION...A cluster of thunderstorms has become better organized
near the southwest MN/northwest IA border over the past hour. This
activity is occurring closer to a surface boundary and on the nose
of a 35 kt southwesterly low-level jet. Sufficient instability,
steep midlevel lapse rates, and effective shear magnitudes greater
than 35 kt will support strong to severe thunderstorms into early
morning. A severe thunderstorm watch will likely be needed soon to
address this increasing severe risk.

...Leitman/Guyer.. 06/17/2024

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!8-NDMpCUVcXrJdbcSt8HbiTsx1vKgcYFvILC1vrsf0SrttK25tdYjy0lUm9Yyf0WtIZyasDP-=
iiFRHgNITr70YJ7-Rg$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...

LAT...LON   42969651 43779631 44399567 44579518 45239266 45069112
            44449065 43799085 43289164 42839330 42609495 42619622
            42969651=20


=3D =3D =3D
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