Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1296
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jun 17 2024 04:35:06

ACUS11 KWNS 170434
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170434=20
MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-NEZ000-170600-

Mesoscale Discussion 1296
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1134 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Areas affected...Western/northern NE...south-central/southeast
SD...southwest MN...extreme northwest IA

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 426...

Valid 170434Z - 170600Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 426
continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for hail and perhaps isolated strong/severe
gusts will continue overnight.

DISCUSSION...A band of elevated convection that earlier erupted
across northern NE/southern SD has evolved into an elongated storm
cluster with occasional embedded elevated supercells. Some recent
intensification has also been noted with a storm cluster moving into
the southeast part of the NE Panhandle from northeast CO. Moderate
to strong elevated buoyancy and sufficient deep-layer shear will
support occasionally organized storms into the overnight hours. A
strong low-level jet will continue to support rather widespread
storm coverage, with a tendency toward a cluster and perhaps
eventually a linear mode. This mode evolution may not be ideal for a
more organized hail threat, but very steep midlevel lapse rates will
result in occasional large-hail potential with the stronger embedded
cells. Isolated strong to severe gusts will also be possible,
especially if organized upscale growth occurs.=20

Some severe threat may spread into southern MN and far northwest IA
with time, and eventual downstream watch issuance is possible if
observational trends support maintenance of an organized
severe-thunderstorm threat.

...Dean/Smith.. 06/17/2024

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!6oh9zdzfnDMog2gRg9uxLVdl_wYa6SfPkVoqnDmLbkB9U07-eWxVT4qN8JBM_R4kifoD9PY1s=
wIupJVckGU0DMrAUyE$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...UNR...CYS...

LAT...LON   42570349 43619957 44339729 45089478 44629420 44009395
            42749751 41830029 41140165 41080267 41210340 42570349=20


=3D =3D =3D
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