Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1295
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jun 17 2024 03:43:04

ACUS11 KWNS 170342
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170342=20
NEZ000-170515-

Mesoscale Discussion 1295
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1042 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Areas affected...Southwest/central/northeast NE

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 425...

Valid 170342Z - 170515Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 425
continues.

SUMMARY...An isolated severe storm or two cannot be ruled out into
the early overnight hours.

DISCUSSION...An earlier prolific hail-producing supercell has
weakened across southwest NE late this evening, while other storms
from south-central into northeast NE have failed to mature thus far.
Some potential remains for one of the lingering areas of convection
to flare up over the next 1-2 hours, as a low-level jet continues to
strengthen across the region. This may be most likely near/north of
a surface front that will move slowly northward tonight. However,
with the strongest ascent becoming focused farther north (into
northern NE and southern SD), the window of opportunity for
redevelopment closer to the surface front may be relatively limited.

...Dean.. 06/17/2024

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!5QhkAkSA1QYCqv4xxntDVxl8qv2unJd4mSxarTwuEgDgGySkOev0lIUie36sGfAehkbKZRNu2=
BARvHOLiDewQ5sY_9E$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...

LAT...LON   40600117 41809885 42459750 42579706 42469665 42039665
            41689671 41269712 40239904 40479979 40440022 40470104
            40600117=20


=3D =3D =3D
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