Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1294
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jun 17 2024 03:09:33

ACUS11 KWNS 170309
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170308=20
MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-170415-

Mesoscale Discussion 1294
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1008 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Areas affected...south-central Michigan into far northern Indiana
and Ohio

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 170308Z - 170415Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A line of thunderstorms will be capable of producing
instances of strong to severe winds over the next 1-2 hours.

DISCUSSION...A line of thunderstorms moving eastward across the far
south-central Michigan have a history of producing damaging wind and
a measured gust up to 76 mph near Kalamazoo, MI. This line of
thunderstorms is moving into a drier and more stable airmass to the
east, where dew points are in the mid to upper 50s with MLCAPE
decreasing to <500 J/kg. As such, this line is expected to weaken in
the next 1-2 hours, limiting the severe threat with eastward extent.
New convection has developed to the south and west of this line,
which also may pose a risk for occasional strong to severe wind
before moving into the more stable air to the east.

...Thornton/Smith.. 06/17/2024

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9Z6o3Kl9InF4lvwdttS1-Uykk6iDSxfPMOQSMDby7eOL42SMAQAnlGiiu9jHUfbdC5lZNjfkH=
mHQQX3AHohocUjROc4$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...IWX...GRR...

LAT...LON   41378553 41408644 42028627 42338574 43008494 42908411
            42718398 42208384 41648394 41508501 41378553=20


=3D =3D =3D
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