Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1292
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jun 16 2024 23:23:02

ACUS11 KWNS 162322
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162322=20
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-170045-

Mesoscale Discussion 1292
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0622 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Areas affected...Southwest/central NE into northeast CO and
northwest KS

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 162322Z - 170045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this evening.

DISCUSSION...Convective initiation is underway just southwest of
McCook, NE, in the vicinity of a nearly stationary front draped from
northeast CO into south-central/northeast NE. Strong buoyancy is in
place within the rather hot and well-mixed environment along/south
of the front, along with sufficient effective shear (generally 30-35
kt) for some storm organization. Storm coverage may remain rather
isolated in the short term in the absence of stronger large-scale
ascent, but an isolated supercell or two could form near the front
into the early evening, with a threat of large hail and localized
severe gusts.=20

Watch issuance in the short term is uncertain, but remains possible
if the threat for multiple severe storms appears imminent. Later
this evening, a general increase in elevated storm coverage
(including the potential for hail) is expected north of the front as
a low-level jet intensifies, with watch issuance becoming possible
across a larger portion of the region.

...Dean/Smith.. 06/16/2024

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9GZfcTvA9BuU7GTrK2pATCOzmZ-HlvT--zztb0yXOEiMSU0OFu_O_UWVxxhlbhyeatFf3dTJt=
KJv54qwLEtI58rz85k$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...GLD...

LAT...LON   39710011 39490128 39490239 39920248 40400135 40820036
            41489862 41599824 41189783 40859796 40369875 39979944
            39710011=20


=3D =3D =3D
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