Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Jun 16 2024 05:00:11 AWUS01 KWNH 160500 FFGMPD KSZ000-NEZ000-160845- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0445 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1259 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Areas affected...northeastern KS Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 160458Z - 160845Z Summary...Repeating and training of thunderstorms over northeastern KS may produce localized flash flooding over the next 2-4 hours. Rainfall rates of 1-2 in/hr will be possible, although the duration of the flash flood threat remains uncertain. Discussion...0430Z radar imagery over northeastern KS showed a small cluster of thunderstorms, located primarily north of I-70 with MRMS-derived peak rates of 1.00 to 1.75 in/hr. These thunderstorms were elevated, occurring north of an outflow boundary that extended through northeastern KS into northwestern MO with ~1000 to 2000 J/kg MUCAPE available via the 04Z SPC mesoanalysis. VAD wind plots showed 850 mb winds were from the SSW at 35-40 kt with winds veered more to the SW above 850 mb. These low level winds were overrunning the rain-cooled outflow boundary with deeper-layer mean winds pushing individual cells off toward the E or NE between 20-25 kt. Aloft, the region was situated between an eastward moving upper level shortwave over far eastern KS but ahead of an upstream shortwave near the KS/CO border with near neutral height advection in between. The stronger low level flow is forecast by the RAP to remain through at least the next 3-4 hours with possible weakening to the east and possible strengthening to the west. A focused fetch of moisture, represented by PWATs of 1.4 to 1.7 inches over east-central KS (SPC mesoanalysis) is likely to maintain some degree of elevated convection over northeastern KS for another few hours with relatively steep 700-500 mb lapse rates of 7 C/km maintaining instability across the region. Some expansion toward the Missouri River is possible in the short term, but some minor backbuilding toward the west into central/north-central KS may also occur given modified propagation vectors. Recent hires models do not have a good handle on current placement of storms so confidence is reduced beyond 1-2 hours. However, at least a localized flash flood threat appears probable over the region for at least the next 2 hours, with uncertainty increasing beyond that time frame toward 09Z. Otto ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!76SgRE1YgUql2PZK3EFWLMSRkqWXlJ5g3MPl83jiUIAkY0x1aUlA1iA3vGrKSw2EKSep= _pJp68L_BA9V2vgIrj8qP7A$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EAX...GID...ICT...OAX...TOP... ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 40089810 40089667 39979535 39219540 38559668=20 38639823 39099889 39669893 40029866=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .