Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1286
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jun 16 2024 04:32:23

ACUS11 KWNS 160432
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160431=20
NDZ000-160600-

Mesoscale Discussion 1286
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1131 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Areas affected...northern ND

Concerning...Tornado Watch 422...

Valid 160431Z - 160600Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 422 continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for 60-80 mph wind gusts, isolated hail, and
possibly a tornado will spread quickly eastward into the early
overnight. Downstream watch issuance is likely.

DISCUSSION...A fast-moving MCS with a history of producing
significant severe gusts is moving across northwest ND late this
evening. This MCS remains quite well-organized, with evidence of a
strong rear-inflow jet, and 2-hour pressure rises of greater than 6
mb recently noted over northeast MT. Steep midlevel lapse rates,
relatively rich low-level moisture, and favorable deep-layer shear
will support maintenance of this MCS as it moves across northern ND
into the early overnight hours. Wind gusts of 60-80 mph will
continue to be the primary hazard, though favorable low-level
shear/SRH (as noted on the KMIB VWP) could also support potential
for a line-embedded tornado.=20

With some severe-wind risk expected to spread east of WW 422,
eventual downstream watch issuance into parts of north-central and
northeast ND is likely.

...Dean/Smith.. 06/16/2024

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4HD6i4PtwEcFvxrvERWNJjnO7-PCZrAeNrNuLbUMwFtiCox2C1hOm9j473dZpJcaJft0hRV4S=
JJ6uqVCMbg8jvCCiLc$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

LAT...LON   48950316 49030196 49090061 49119857 48469795 47379850
            47220158 47250332 48240322 48950316=20


=3D =3D =3D
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