Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1281
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jun 16 2024 01:25:49

ACUS11 KWNS 160125
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160125=20
TXZ000-160300-

Mesoscale Discussion 1281
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0825 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Areas affected...Parts of the TX South Plains into the northern
Permian Basin vicinity

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 160125Z - 160300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A localized threat for hail and severe gusts may persist
through 9-10 PM CDT.

DISCUSSION...A small supercell cluster has recently formed
west-southwest of Lubbock, within a region of moderate buoyancy and
moderate deep-layer shear (as noted in the recent KLBB VWP). Steep
midlevel lapse rates (as observed in the 00Z MAF sounding) will
continue to support a hail threat with these storms for as long as
they persist, along with some potential for isolated severe gusts.
Increasing MLCINH should lead to a weakening trend later tonight,
but some threat for hail of golfball size or larger may persist
through 9-10 PM CDT as storms spread slowly southeastward.

...Dean/Smith.. 06/16/2024

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!75MICz-L1A86VKkaWVEIpsyoPUpRFRT6go4WCKmHJwp-8Ell16i-mf3EW7-xBpAqibnNAA6dP=
V1Co7yZoLjc9sLcL1E$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON   33210294 33650267 33900225 33720178 32800157 32750219
            32730267 33210294=20


=3D =3D =3D
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