Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1280
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jun 16 2024 00:55:52

ACUS11 KWNS 160055
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160055=20
NDZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-160200-

Mesoscale Discussion 1280
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0755 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Areas affected...western/central North Dakota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 160055Z - 160200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Risk of severe storms with potential for large hail,
damaging wind, and a tornado or two increasing into the evening.

DISCUSSION...Supercells have developed across northern South Dakota
and in western North Dakota this afternoon. Thunderstorm activity
will increase this evening as a line of thunderstorms moves eastward
out of Montana and additional thunderstorms develop along an
eastward progressing cold front. These storms will be moving into an
environment with favorable shear (40-50 kts 0-6 km) and instability
(MLCAPE 2000-2500 J/kg) to support potential for a few discrete
supercells and bowing linear segments capable of damaging winds,
large hail, and a tornado or two. A watch will be needed soon to
cover this threat.

...Thornton/Smith.. 06/16/2024

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_6BI-wh78y5-22Hxjbmd5Wh1SxyUquyiTlZt3HfTxQTRKF1rvEoR91jImAElU5ecwV2wVsIK-=
TwxSQruAtU97ISuD0o$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...

LAT...LON   45920352 45890351 45970414 47990423 48720371 48960250
            48979997 48899936 48449882 47689880 47009874 46629878
            46009907 45870004 45840075 45920352=20


=3D =3D =3D
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