Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1269
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jun 15 2024 18:56:19

ACUS11 KWNS 151856
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151855=20
MTZ000-152100-

Mesoscale Discussion 1269
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0155 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Areas affected...central and western Montana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 151855Z - 152100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Locally strong gusts are expected as storms continue to
develop across western and central Montana, but isolated nature of
the risk suggests WW issuance remains unlikely.

DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite and radar loops show
convection developing across the higher terrain of western Montana,
with a very weakly unstable airmass.  While the meager instability
should limit convective intensity, flow aloft remains quite strong,
which could at times augment updraft longevity.  This, combined with
a rather deep/dry mixed layer that continues to evolve as the
boundary layer warms, suggests potential for a few strong gusts --
aided by sub-cloud evaporation.  CAMs continue to hint at potential
for some upscale growth -- a scenario that bears watching for later
today/farther east.  In the short term however, weaker instability
with eastward extent into central Montana should limit potential for
more widespread severe wind.

...Goss/Gleason.. 06/15/2024

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!7CY-Cafsc4ZPUjPJBOo2ShSZyMPKsp0F-agtvBODiyBsVQL8LCpbN8jOrQwR1IPc5p7DLwXuM=
Gj4bxmAF_INuQT_jRo$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...

LAT...LON   45201183 45661208 47491174 48400970 48450845 47100848
            45730950 45201183=20


=3D =3D =3D
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