Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1233
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jun 11 2024 19:39:13

ACUS11 KWNS 111939
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111938=20
FLZ000-112145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1233
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0238 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Areas affected...far south Florida

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 111938Z - 112145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A brief tornado will be possible through the late
afternoon hours across the Everglades. Watch issuance will not be
needed.

DISCUSSION...Convective cells embedded with a broad stratiform rain
shield across the FL Everglades have taken on supercellular
characteristics over the past few hours per reflectivity/velocity
imagery from KAMX. Broad/weak, transient mesocyclones have been
observed mainly south of the I-75 corridor before weakening as they
migrate into a well-established cold pool north of the interstate.
Despite the expansive precipitation shield across the region, ample
low-level moisture (dewpoints in the mid/upper 70s) is supporting
around 1500 J/kg MLCAPE, which will remain sufficient to support a
few deeper convective towers. Additionally, regional VWPs continue
to show around 50-100 m2/s2 0-1 SRH with a slight increase in 1 km
winds up to 30-35 knots noted over the past hour or so. While not
substantial, this low-level shear has been sufficient to support
some degree of low-level rotation, which may result in a brief
tornado within the Everglades region through late afternoon.

...Moore/Smith.. 06/11/2024

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9HzCqHAHrZq3_xi0HjxecCZeZlnu4bA2qQCks5Jk2dZKYOyINKLyDqw3c5eNW6DtU8K_E7q72=
-0235-K0DvFvufcycE$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...

LAT...LON   25198067 25398110 25638124 25818144 25988151 26118134
            26138104 26098075 25938022 25778018 25498026 25348040
            25258044 25198067=20


=3D =3D =3D
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