Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1216 To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Jun 09 2024 19:36:25 ACUS11 KWNS 091936 SWOMCD SPC MCD 091935=20 OKZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-092130- Mesoscale Discussion 1216 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0235 PM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024 Areas affected...Southeast New Mexico into western Texas and southern Oklahoma Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20 Valid 091935Z - 092130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are anticipated through the late afternoon hours across southeast New Mexico into western and central Texas and southwest/southern Oklahoma. While sporadic hail and damaging winds are possible, storm organization/longevity should remain limited. Watch issuance is not currently anticipated. DISCUSSION...Latest GOES imagery shows a few attempts at sustained convective initiation across central to western TX along a diffuse surface trough/confluence zone to the east of a weak surface low over the Trans Pecos region. Additional cumulus development is noted along a cold front pushing southward through southern OK and northwest TX. More robust/sustained convection appears likely within the next 1-2 hours across both of these regions as diurnal heating and weak mesoscale ascent further erode lingering inhibition and surface-based parcels approach their convective temperatures (generally in the mid 90s).=20 To the west, persistent cloud cover over NM has limited daytime heating to some degree, but filtered insolation will continue to destabilize a reasonably moist air mass (surface dewpoints are about the 75th percentile for early June across southeastern NM). A few early updrafts are noted in far southeast NM with additional/more numerous thunderstorm development within the upslope flow regime anticipated a little later this afternoon, most likely during the 21-23 UTC period based off recent high-res guidance.=20 Both regions are characterized by moderate to strong SBCAPE (2000-4000 J/kg), weak deep-layer wind shear (based on recent VWP observations), and deep, well-mixed boundary layers. Consequently, the expectation is for initially discrete to semi-discrete cells to pose an early severe hail risk before quickly becoming outflow dominant with additional redevelopment along outflow boundaries. One or more somewhat organized clusters may emerge and pose a more focused severe wind threat if consolidated cold pools can become established; however, this appears to be a low-predictability scenario given the potential for scattered thunderstorms over a broad region. Given the poor kinematic environment and low-confidence in where more focused severe wind corridors will emerge, watch issuance is not anticipated. ...Moore/Gleason.. 06/09/2024 ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-kLT_BZdW15aHZ5ew25naosUSVoxjuzlDIzD83ns_uu53twykT967Qbwo0I9HUgbpXlzQKMLv= 2af85EXZ1MzczPmtbw$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ... LAT...LON 30830296 31320355 32240440 32810454 33600445 34080412 34500353 34860272 34840175 34529952 34719800 34999684 34969630 34519614 33989640 33569682 33059803 32769861 32149893 31429869 30729871 30309892 30109932 30049994 30010059 30130135 30830296=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .