Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1206
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jun 08 2024 23:20:47

ACUS11 KWNS 082320
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 082320=20
KSZ000-COZ000-090045-

Mesoscale Discussion 1206
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0620 PM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024

Areas affected...Portions of southeast and east-central CO into far
southwest/west-central KS

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 398...

Valid 082320Z - 090045Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 398
continues.

SUMMARY...Risk of very large hail (up to 2.75 inches), significant
gusts (70-80 mph), and a couple tornadoes continues across parts of
Severe Thunderstorm Watch 398.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar data from KGLD/KPUX depicts a pair of
intense discrete supercells tracking generally east/southeastward at
around 20 kt over Kit Carson, Cheyenne, and Lincoln Counties in
east-central CO. A tornado and baseball-sized hail has been reported
with the northern/eastern supercell. These storms are in a very
favorable environment for the maintenance of supercells, with
moist/backed easterly surface winds (lower 60s dewpoints) beneath a
belt of 40-50-kt midlevel westerlies (per regional VWP).
Additionally, ample clockwise low-level hodograph curvature (around
250 m2/s2 effective SRH) should support continued strong
low/midlevel mesocyclones given the seperated/discrete mode. As a
result, very large hail (up to 2.75 inches) and a couple tornadoes
are the main concern with these storms, with locally damaging gusts
also probable.=20

Farther south over Otero and Bent Counties in southeastern CO, an
intense line segment has evolved in a moderately unstable air mass.
40 kt of effective shear orthogonal to the line and a
moist/well-mixed boundary layer should support the maintenance or
even intensification of these storms as they continue eastward.
Significant gusts of 70-80 mph could accompany this activity. A
brief mesovortex tornado or two is also possible with these storms,
given the ample low-level SRH described above.

...Weinman.. 06/08/2024

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_XYx8_S5ZfQMIzKrI1PJZH-4d6SqOf1JzrBfPFkdRMKCl9RNFhWJuztox9sRUDzNRgMa1pwyU=
DYda2dtd-zQKNOH9Pg$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...

LAT...LON   38860341 39350279 39340241 39210205 38810190 38020196
            37610219 37580294 37690359 37920368 38510352 38860341=20


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.