Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1205
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jun 08 2024 22:39:46

ACUS11 KWNS 082239
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 082239=20
COZ000-090045-

Mesoscale Discussion 1205
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0539 PM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024

Areas affected...Portions of northeastern Colorado

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 398...

Valid 082239Z - 090045Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 398
continues.

SUMMARY...A localized corridor of significant severe-gust potential
(75-85 mph) is evident for the next few hours across portions of
northeast Colorado. Sporadic large hail and brief tornadoes are also
possible.

DISCUSSION...An upscale-growing cluster of storms is tracking
southeastward at around 25-30 kt across portions of northeastern CO
-- generally between I-70 and I-76. Gusts upwards of 70 mph have
been observed with these storms. During the next few hours,
continued upscale growth/cold pool consolidation is expected, aided
by a glancing shortwave trough (evident in water-vapor imagery) over
far northeastern CO. Earlier heating of a relatively moist boundary
layer (middle/upper 50s dewpoints) beneath steep midlevel lapse
rates should support continued surface-based inflow for intensifying
updrafts at the leading edge of the convective line. And, around 50
kt of westerly/line-orthogonal 0-6 km shear (sampled by regional
VWP) should aid in organized embedded updrafts with instances of
deep/persistent rotation. As a result, the organizing cold pool and
embedded supercell/mesovortex structures will be capable of
producing significant gusts of 75-85 mph as it continues
southeastward for the next few hours. Sporadic large hail and brief
tornadoes will also be possible, especially with the embedded
supercells/mesovorticies.

...Weinman.. 06/08/2024

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!8-mqMmS5ZYY-j54LZP6OcaiX4IN4WZicSCwusrDwNij0luSZHnQy6dZei7n237U0AF35xYf7D=
suKreAZ-g3tQlPaaIE$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GLD...BOU...

LAT...LON   39860388 40200352 40360327 40470295 40300245 40060212
            39580213 39280239 39120294 39070364 39310417 39500426
            39860388=20


=3D =3D =3D
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