Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jun 08 2024 11:51:43

ACUS01 KWNS 081151
SWODY1
SPC AC 081150

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0650 AM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024

Valid 081300Z - 091200Z

....THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN
KANSAS...

....SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across the
central High Plains this afternoon then spread toward central Kansas
during the evening. Isolated severe storms may also occur across the
Ozarks vicinity.

....CO/KS...
Early morning water vapor imagery shows a well-defined mid-level
shortwave trough over northern UT.  This feature will track eastward
today, spreading large-scale ascent and increasing mid-level
moisture into the high plains of CO.  A combination of daytime
heating and the approaching upper system will lead to scattered
thunderstorms by early afternoon from southeast WY into the
foothills of northern CO.  Storms will intensify and track
east-southeastward in the vicinity of a surface boundary that will
extend into western KS.  Supercells capable of very large hail and
damaging winds will be possible for the first few hours of the
event, with upscale organization into a linear MCS expected as the
storms move into KS.  A consensus of CAM solutions show the
potential for rather widespread damaging winds during the evening
before storms weaken over central KS after midnight.

....Central/Southern MO...
A large but decaying MCS is currently moving across MO.  Recent
model guidance suggests that rapid moisture return will occur behind
this system, with a reservoir of low 70s dewpoints and strong
afternoon heating expected.  This will yield MLCAPE values of
2500-3500 J/kg, along with faster westerly flow aloft.  Low-level
forcing mechanisms will be weak, and there is uncertainty where the
axis of convective development will occur.  But it appears likely
that scattered afternoon supercell storms will be possible, capable
of large hail and damaging winds.  An isolated tornado or two is
also possible.

...Hart/Bentley.. 06/08/2024

$$

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