Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1196
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Jun 07 2024 23:52:06

ACUS11 KWNS 072352
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 072351=20
NEZ000-080115-

Mesoscale Discussion 1196
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0651 PM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024

Areas affected...Portions of south-central Nebraska

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 395...397...

Valid 072351Z - 080115Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 395, 397
continues.

SUMMARY...Large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two remain
possible with thunderstorms tracking south-southeastward across
south-central Nebraska this evening.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar data from KLNX indicates several
discrete/semi-discrete supercells tracking south-southeastward
across south-central Nebraska this evening. In particular, one
longer-lived intense supercell currently over southeastern Custer
County poses the greatest risk for large hail, damaging winds, and a
tornado. Downstream of this storm, VWP data shows a large,
clockwise-curved low-level hodograph (around 200 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH),
which will support ample streamwise vorticity ingestion, given
middle 60s dewpoints and moderate surface-based instability. This
supercell may persist for another 60-90 minutes, with large hail up
to 2.5 inches, locally damaging gusts up to 75 mph, and a tornado
possible.

Trailing supercell development along the outflow boundary will also
pose a risk for large hail and damaging winds, and a brief tornado
cannot be ruled out. Farther east over Nance County, a locally
upscale-growing storm cluster is moving southeast at 30-35 kt, and
this storm may pose a greater damaging-wind risk, with large hail
also possible.

...Weinman/Majchrowski.. 06/07/2024

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9LBfCCWtgTUpO4Pgf9tYLVPZ_Ke42ggqEW9JzFMg_tXCviZ2VstIX0BqAwU_IC7s_r8J7XkwK=
sz6pxfjEi-u7PDelH4$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...

LAT...LON   41490022 41669990 41729792 41519714 41059675 40469696
            40299765 40199853 40259955 40370001 40720035 41070050
            41490022=20


=3D =3D =3D
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