Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1194
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Jun 07 2024 23:16:36

ACUS11 KWNS 072316
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 072316=20
SDZ000-NDZ000-080045-

Mesoscale Discussion 1194
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0616 PM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024

Areas affected...Portions of southwest/south-central ND and
northwest/north-central SD

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 072316Z - 080045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A localized strong to severe storm capable of marginally
severe hail and locally strong/damaging winds is possible during the
next couple hours.

DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorm development is underway over
southwest ND into northwest SD -- generally focused along a weak
east/west-oriented stationary boundary. This activity is developing
along the northern edge of a plume of weak surface-based
instability, and this weak instability is the main mitigating factor
for a more robust severe-storm risk. However, proximity forecast
soundings indicate strong deep-layer shear (around 60 kt of
effective shear) -- characterized by a long/straight hodograph. This
wind profile may support brief updraft organization (with transient
midlevel rotation) -- capable of producing marginally severe hail
(up to 1 inch) and locally strong/damaging winds (45-60 mph) for the
next couple hours. Overall, the weak instability should limit the
severe threat.

...Weinman/Majchrowski/Bunting.. 06/07/2024

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!7qQDw6587VNhHsrosv7vnwHoOHfc60sZSk92lyZOn8u8DnkmnrjoG-r2ttJhN5vqpSRjgWv91=
zy7BeAyMEQ7vM5s6B4$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...

LAT...LON   45680266 45950261 46270240 46430217 46530162 46460076
            46170000 45519981 44970025 44850105 45040208 45310256
            45680266=20


=3D =3D =3D
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