Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Jun 07 2024 08:51:28

ACUS48 KWNS 070851
SWOD48
SPC AC 070850

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0350 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024

Valid 101200Z - 151200Z

....DISCUSSION...
....Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6...
From Monday to Wednesday, model forecast spreads are unusually
large, suggesting that uncertainty is considerable. The ECMWF is
forecasting a shortwave trough to move through the northern High
Plains on Monday. If this trough materializes, then strong storms
would be possible in the Dakotas during the late afternoon and early
evening. This potential for strong storms appears to shift southward
into the southern Plains Tuesday, where the ECMWF has northwest flow
and moderate instability. On Wednesday, a severe threat could
develop in parts of the northern Plains once again, as low-level
moisture returns ahead of another shortwave trough. Due to the large
model spreads, confidence in any one scenario during the early to
mid week is quite low.

....Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8...
Large model spreads concerning potential outcomes continues on
Thursday and Friday. The ECMWF solution suggests that the greatest
potential for severe storms could be in the central Plains each day,
within the northern part of a moist and unstable airmass. The ECMWF
solution suggests that any potential for severe storms could remain
unfocused due to a lack of forcing within west-northwest mid-level
flow. Late in the Day 4 to 8 period, the large spread in model
solutions suggests that predictability remains unusually low.

...Broyles.. 06/07/2024

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