Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1179
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jun 06 2024 02:17:46

ACUS11 KWNS 060217
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 060217=20
NJZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-060315-

Mesoscale Discussion 1179
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0917 PM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024

Areas affected...far northeastern MD...northern DE and southern NJ

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 060217Z - 060315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...The ongoing cluster of storms near the MD/DE border may
continue east with the risk for an isolated tornado or damaging gust
this evening.

DISCUSSION...As of 0210 UTC regional radar analysis showed a cluster
of low topped storms near the MD/DE border. Thee storms have
retained transient supercell characteristics near a subtle warm
frontal zone across northern DelMarVa. Ahead of these storms, SPC
mesoanalysis shows around 500-1000 J/kg of residual MUCAPE
sufficient for continued updraft maintenance. Low-level shear
remains favorable for some storm-scale rotation with KDOX VAD
showing 0-1km SRH of 250-300 m2/s2. While storms have shown less
intensity with time, the environment ahead of them remains
conditionally favorable for a brief tornado or isolated damaging
gusts for a couple more hours this evening. The exact eastward
extent of the severe risk is uncertain as nocturnal stabilization
has begun with the loss of diurnal heating. However, a very moist
low-level environment (dewpoints in the 70s F) may slow
stabilization and allow storms to remain near surface-based into
parts of eastern DE and southern NJ.

...Lyons/Bunting.. 06/06/2024

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-X4VyMnlHXARiZ0Fgv7KNHS5b9fTJvIgxALpgS3iDK-sYmHaw5beeqEgJ2dYCyO1uQoDDg8Vm=
uX1TwnM_Gqq73Eb6B8$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...LWX...

LAT...LON   39137579 39227615 39357629 39507623 39647603 39717568
            39747525 39667496 39567474 39457464 39287476 39107488
            39067499 39057509 39077543 39137579=20


=3D =3D =3D
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